Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
